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|TITLE||Balanced Development Policy for the Future and Role of Large Cities|
Balanced Development Policy for the Future and Role of Large Cities
Lee Yongwoo Senior Research Fellow
□ Metropolitan areas are expected to be affected more by changes in living conditions and related uncertainties compared to other parts of national territorial spaces, as 78.1% of total population lived in metropolitan areas as of 2015 and metropolitan areas act as the engine for national development and play a key role in people's lives.
□ The future of large metropolitan areas can be classified into four scenarios through a methodology for projection of the future based on scenario planning.
￭ In the expansion scenario, large metropolitan areas are projected to expand through the nodes of the main transport network, areas around railway stations, interchanges of expressways, etc.
￭ In the recession scenario, the hollow effect is expected in old industrial complexes near large cities, concentrated areas designated for specific functions, aging housing in inner city areas, and apartment buildings in the outskirts of large cities.
￭ In the condensation scenario, regional hubs are likely to be revitalized thanks to higher growth of inner city areas and concentrated development of combined spaces for both housing and work.
￭ In the melting scenario, it would become meaningless to specify large metropolitan areas due to less limitations on location requirements for workplaces and housing.
□ The melting scenario, in which the meaning and specification of large metropolitan areas are meaningless, and the condensation scenario, in which “decentralized concentration” is expected in spatial structure, are desirable and highly likely.
￭ Ten policy tasks to respond to potential changes in the future of large metropolitan areas are established in terms of competitiveness, spatial structure, management, systems, and so forth.
① To prepare national territorial policies for balanced development in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and low economic growth, it is important to come up with measures that focus on the future and roles of large metropolitan areas and promote joint development of large metropolitan areas and the remainder of the national territory.
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